上海世博会经济贡献率的灰色预测模型 |
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上海世博会经济贡献率的灰色预测模型 Prediction on economic contribution rate of the Shanghai World Expo based on grey system theory 发布时间：2011-08-01 浏览量：72 收藏数：0 评论数：0 总览 评价 崔斌1*， 翁文婷2 （ 1、中国矿业大学矿业学院； 2、中国矿业大学理学院； ）
摘要： 以上海世博会的经济贡献率预测为主要目的，讨论了应用灰色模型的可能性，简要介绍了建立灰色预测模型以及检验模型精度的方法，最后应用该理论预测上海世博会经济贡献率。上海世博会的经济贡献率是时间序列数据，通过检验和残差修正，可得到GM（1，1）时间序列预测模型。编制了用于灰色预测的MATLAB程序。最后得到世博会在7月份对上海的经济贡献率最大，5,6月份次之，3,4，8月的影响有所减弱。该结果符合实际情况。研究表明，灰色模型预测经济贡献率的方法简单，预测精度高。
关键词： 世博会；贡献率；灰色系统 Cui Bin1*， Wen Wenting2 （ 1、School of mining of China university of mining and technology； 2、College of scinces of China university of mining and technology； ）
Abstract： To predict the economic contribution rate of the Shanghai World Expo,the possibility of the application of grey forecasting model is discussed.It Briefly introduces the establishment of grey forecasting model and method of testing the precision of the model and applicats the theory in the prediction of the economic contribution rate .Scince the economic contribution rate is time series data, GM ( 1, 1 ) prediction model of time series can be provided with the help of the test and residual error amendment. Finally a MATLAB program for grey forecasting is prepared. The result that Shanghai 's economic contribution rate is highest in July, lowest in March, April and August , and ranks middle in May and June , is consistent with actual situation.Research shows that grey forecasting model is simple and of high precision in forecasting the Economic contribution rate.
Keywords： the World Expo; contribution rate; grey system
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