我国石油化工企业财务预警系统实证研究 |
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我国石油化工企业财务预警系统实证研究 Empirical Study on Financial Early-warning System for Petro-Chemical Enterprise in China 发布时间：2011-08-19 浏览量：3 收藏数：0 评论数：0 总览 评价 张丽英1， 杨玉凤2* （ 1、中国矿业大学管理学院； 2、中国矿业大学管理学院，徐州市 221008； ）
摘要： 财务危机预警是以财务会计信息为基础，通过设置并观察一些敏感性预警指标的变化，对企业可能或者将要面临的财务危机所实施的实时监控和预测警报。本文选择了深沪市石化上市公司作为研究对象，首先运用主成分分析法得到对财务预警系统具有重要影响的主成分，其次采用Logistic回归分析法构建财务预警模型。为检验模型的有效性和准确性，将石化上市公司的财务数据进行回代检验，结果表明模型具有较高的预测能力，最后对模型进行了拟合度检验，拟合程度较高。
关键词： 主成分分析；Logistic回归；财务危机预警 ZHANG Liying1， YANG Yufeng2* （ 1、Shool of Management,China University of Technology and Mining； 2、Shool of Management,China University of Technology and Mining,Xuzhou 221008； ）
Abstract： Financial crisis warning takes accounting and financial information as the foundation. By setting and observing changes of some sensitive early-warning indexes, it implements real time control and forecasts alert about financial risk that enterprises will probably face. This paper chooses petrochemical listed companies as study object, use principal component analysis and Logistic regression analysis to build financial early-warning model. Then do some demonstration which shows that use of Logistic regressive analysis to build the model is feasible and effective. It has good predictive capability. At last, the efficiency test indicates the model is highly efficient on financial early-warning.
Keywords： principal component analysis; Logistic regression; financial crisis early-warning
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